Alright bloggers, The first snowflakes of the season are on the way. They're moving in closer and closer as I type. Take a look at the system we're tracking just off to our west in this radar image below.
This image was taken at 6:26pm EST. You can see the rain and snow knocking on our door. We will definitely see snow from this system however the question everyone wants to know is "How much?". Well that depends on where the 540 line is going to set up. AKA The freeze line.
Right now I have models showing us seeing more snow then we would rain. Take a look at this model below.
The yellow line is the 540 line. If it sets up where this model is showing then I believe we could see snowfall between 1" and 3" inches staying a mostly snow event here in the Lafayette, area. However if we do not cool off below that freezing line soon enough then our 1" to 3" inches could easily fall to a less than an inch event. This is tricky. For snow lovers, the good news is two out of three models show more snow than rain.
We will see the rain / snow start after midnight tonight. As the temperatures drop the rain will begin to change over to snow as we continue to head into Saturday morning / mid day. It will be breezy tonight and Saturday with winds between 15 and 20 mph gusting to 25 + mph at times. Expect a low tonight around 27* degrees with a high tomorrow reaching 36* degrees. A low taking a deep drop Saturday night into the teens around 15* degrees!
So how much snow do I think we'll see based on the current model runs? Well I'm trying to be generous with my first snowfall forecast of the year. So lets take a look.
I like 1" to 3" inches north on Monticello, where an all snow event is much more likely. I'm going with .75" to 2" inches around the Lafayette, area. And lower totals the more south you go south of Montgomery county and around the Indianapolis area. Like I said this is subject to change based on that 540 line. However I feel like this is a pretty good start.
Take care bloggers. And enjoy the first snowflakes of the season!