Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Severe weather is still staying south of Montgomery county which is good news for the WLFI viewing area! Areas around Terre haute, and east of there is getting hit hard with severe thunderstorm warnings and even some tornado warnings in areas of bloomington, IN. God bless them and keep them all safe!
We have so many severe thunderstorm warnings out with this system currently just starting to make it's way over the Indiana state line it's not even funny! But I have gone through the latest weather data and here's what I came up with!
We are still looking at lifted index at -1.8 and models are expecting them to fall just a little more between -2 and -3. Yes, this is still unstable enough to support these severe thunderstorms! Now I have also gone over the CAPE values and the EHI. They are both showing the worst to possibly stay from Tippecanoe county south. Now I'm not saying we won't see a stray strong storm or two as that is still very possible! But even looking at the radars right now the real strong stuff is staying south of Montgomery county! This is good news for the Viewing area.
Still we can expect to see moderate to heavy rainfall along with a few gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph possible. Flooding will be a threat! And frequent lightning!
Lifted Index is expected to fall to or around -3. Anything around -4 is pretty unstable and allows severe thunderstorm development!
Total Totals models are expected to rise to or around 53, Which means Scattered Heavy Storms.
SWEAT models are expected to rise to or around 350, which anything at 300 or above means we have severe thunderstorm potential.
EHI is expected to be around 1, which it usually needs to be around 1 to 2 for thunderstorm development.
And we are looking at an 80% chance for thunderstorms this evening / tonight.
So after looking at these models and where they're expected to be later on this evening I'm going ahead and telling you that if this indeed happens then we will have some strong weather to track this evening / tonight. The sun has been out for the past half hour / 45 minutes or so which isn't helping any. The dew points are even going up as I type! All we can do for now is continue to watch the radars and data and keep each other updated!
This could be a long evening if the models are right!
This system has slowed a bit as it moved into the WLFI viewing area. Lafayette as you can see above is now expecting to see the thundershowers start in closer to 2:45pm EDT and Logansport should see the rain closer to 4:00pm give or take a little. The severe thunderstorm warning has been lifted in IL, and a new one has yet to be issued. This system has weakened as it's moved closer to home which is always good news! We still have some light to moderate rainfall to expect. Also some lightning which is a threat with any thunderstorm. And maybe a few breezy winds as well as you can see some minor bowing in the image above.
I'll check back again soon.
Severe thunderstorm watch has been put into effect for every county in the WLFI viewing area but Benton, Newton, and Jasper, counties. This watch is in effect from now until 9:00pm CDT 10:00pm EDT tonight...
Okay bloggers. We have this small line of rain / thunderstorms about to move into the WLFI viewing area. Right now looking to be closer to Tippecanoe, county and White, / Carroll, counties closer to 2:00pm EDT this afternoon. Now I'm picking up some lightning strikes with this system and the national weather service has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for a county in IL right around the city of Effingham, IL. This system is moving north east at around 48.8 mph. This is the only area currently with a severe thunderstorm warning in effect. Now I have gone through our current data and the temperatures have been going up slowly. We are looking at a slightly unstable Lifted index (LI) at -0.3. And our Total Totals models (TT) are showing a 20% to 40% chance for some scattered thunderstorms to moderate thunderstorms possible in the area. So right now we are not looking to bad but with this system still holding together as it moves closer we will have to keep a close eye on it as with any system. Nothing severe to talk about in the WLFI viewing area as of now!
Still stay tuned..... I will check back with another update soon.....
Monday, June 14, 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
TIPTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
* UNTIL 100 AM EDT
Don't forget to make your final rainfall reports to the CoCoRaHS first thing in the morning if your a member. Here's the link (( http://www.cocorahs.org/ )) If your not a member then there's no better time to become one then right now! You can fine all the info you need on the site I gave you above.
Now back to the storms we had. Doppler was picking up lots of possible hail inside the storms however we have only received one confirmed report and it's a pretty good sized one!
BOSWELL BENTON .IN Size 1.50"
But one thing we knew we would see a lot of was WIND and that we did! I have a number of wind damage reports from around the area and some even from right here in Lafayette! Take a look.
DELPHI CARROLL IN
TREES DOWNED IN DELPHI.
5 SW LAFAYETTE TIPPECANOE IN
HOG BARN ROOF TORN OFF AND TREES DOWNED AT APPROXIMATELY COUNTY ROADS 500 W AND 75S.
2 ESE BOSWELL BENTON IN
BARN DESTROYED ... TREES DOWNED IN LOCATION OF TIGHT ROTATION ON RADAR ... POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This has been a scary storm for sure. And I hope you all did as you should and got to your safe spots! The good news is I don't have any tornado reports to talk about tonight thank Goodness. And everyone stayed safe!
Main threats will be.....
Moderate rainfall at a rate of a half inch to an inch an hour.
Some low land flooding cannot be ruled out.
Lightning is a threat with any storm.
As for the rest of us from Fountain, county north at this time things are not looking severe. But with storms like we have been seeing today we won't let our guard down jut yet! ;)
Stay tuned I'll check back.....
Lafayette, you are looking okay at this time from this dangerous cell. Still areas of south eastern Tippecanoe, county your not our of the woods just yet! You to have Dangerous cloud to ground lightning, Heavy rain at 2" to 4" inches an hour, Possible pea sized hail, and an isolated tornado cannot be rule out, to watch out for!
Then we do still have more severe thunderstorms moving in from our west that we have to watch as they are starting to move into the northern parts of the WLFI viewing area in counties such as Benton, Warren, And northern Fountain counties. Currently what;s in these counties is not severe! But we do have a number of severe thunderstorm warning issued right on the Indiana state line in IL.....
Stay Tuned. We have more thunderstorms coming from our west we will have to deal with. This looks to be the story for the rest of this evening at least!
STAY TUNED AND GET TO YOUR SAFE SPOTS IF IN THESE AREAS!!
We have a VERY strong cell in the Southern Benton, county area right now moving east... This cell is showing signs of rotating! Aldo VERY heavy rainfall and Marble to golf ball sized hail is possible! This cell will be heading into the Northern Tippecanoe county area and also the extreme southern white county area and then into Carroll county before long...
AGAIN IT IS ROTATING!!!! If your in these areas go ahead and be ready to get to your safe spots!!!!
I will have a more detailed update coming your way in just a few so stay tuned!
Sunday, June 13, 2010
LAFAYETTE TIPPECANOE IN
LIVE WALNUT TREE DOWNED NEAR COUNTY ROADS 1300 SOUTH AND 400 EAST.
CRAWFORDSVILLE MONTGOMERY IN
A FEW TREES DOWN ON CITY STREETS OF MEDIUM SIZE
FRANKFORT CLINTON IN
60 MPH Wind Recorded
Just crazy... That's the only word that comes to mind. The good thing about this first round of storms that went through our area is they quickly made things more stable. We had lifted index (LI) back up to +1.2 after these storms went through. This is pretty good. Any LI from -3 and lower is when things really can get ugly storm-wise. This is why I was thinking that even though there was severe thunderstorm watches out in IL, with the second round of storms I still figured they would weaken as they moved closer to our more stable air. Which thank goodness it worked out that way! ;)
Now it seems we have had rain chances just about everyday this week?!?! Is that going to continue to start the work week?? Well, I hate to break it to everyone but I gotta keep scattered rain / thundershower chances in the forecast for the first few days of the work week. Take a look at your two day forecast I put together below.Sure we're finally getting the pool like temperatures in the near 90 range however the rain chances just keep coming along with it. Well, this time we can thank a low pressure system that is taking it's sweet old time moving across the area. Yes, because of this low I cannot keep out the rain / thundershower chances. Now the good thing is I'm not going to call for an all day total wash out! I think we will see breaks. But still keep the umbrella handy! ;) This is going to be the story for the next couple days at least!
I'm also looking at the temperatures for the week ahead and if you like the hot summer weather then you'll like these temperatures! I have them ranging between the upper 80s and the low 90s!!!! Now all we need is a little more sun and we can hit the pools! :)
Have a great day bloggers. I will be back here if any weather breaks loose! ;)
Now I have just gone through the current data and the good news is we are looking pretty stable! I'm looking at Lifted index of +1.2 which is pretty good. Even the SWEAT models are below 300 which is also a good sign! Now we are watching some more scattered thundershowers to our west at this time. You can see them in this radar image taken below.
Radar image taken at 7:03pm EDT...
Now there are some severe thunderstorm watches with these storms to our west however if we continue to stay as stable as we are right now then we should start to see these storms weaken as the move closer to the WLFI viewing area. Also we are starting to head into the evening / night time hours when we start to cool down which should help us along as well.
Still for now we will continue to watch the storms to our west just to be on the safe side. And if anything is to change you can bet that I will be here to let you all know!
I'll check back if needed!
You can see the current problem area which is inside the pick. Right now entering Montgomery county you can expect HEAVY RAINFALL 1" to 2" inches an hour. I'm not going to rule out the chance for some pea sized hail. Also expect frequent lightning and gusty winds as this storm is showing signs of bowing. After they push through Montgomery county and Tippecanoe county expect them in the Clinton county area and the Boon county area. Pretty much if your south of Lafayette, then you have the better chance of severe weather. North of Lafayette you should be okay! Good news is I have seen no rotation with these storms! Lafayette you are just about finished with severe! Only the eastern parts of Tippecanoe are seeing it at this time.
Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for Most of tippecanoe county, along with Northern fountain county and eastern warren county. Right now Fountain county and southern tippecanoe county looks to be in the path of this storm. Expect high gusty winds. Heavy rainfall coming down at a rate of a half inch to an inch an hour. And some pea sized hail is also possible in areas! Lightning is always a threat with any storm. These storms are moving east.
Stay tuned for updates as needed!
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Montgomery, Clinton, and Cass, county things are looking up for you as well.
Still as always stay away from windows!! Lightning and high winds are our main threats at this time! Along with heavy rainfall. Benton, Newton, and Jasper, counties you are looking good at this time!!
Now Lafayette as around areas are still dry at this time however we are still staying with an 80% chance for some scattered to Moderate thunderstorms to make way into our area as the evening continues. Right now it is looking like most of the severe weather is staying north on Tippecanoe county. However pretty much the whole WLFI viewing area is under that severe thunderstorm WATCH until 8:00pm EDT tonight.
Now the good news with all this bad weather is I'm currently not picking up any signs of rotation! That's always a GOOD sign!
So stay tuned bloggers!
Stay tuned! RADAR IMAGE TAKEN AT 5:08PM EDT.....
Saturday, June 5, 2010
The cells I'm watching right now are the storms moving into Newton and Jasper counties!! They are showing signs of having heavy rainfall falling at a rate of 1" to 2" Inches an hour along with pea sized hail. There is a severe thunderstorm warning issued with these cells and for areas of Benton, Newton, and Jasper, counties. Also a tornado warning for areas of northern Newton county. These warning boxes are moving east!! Everyone in Benton, Newton, and Jasper, counties should be storm ready!! Stay tuned to your local weather and JIWB for the latest!!
Sorry bloggers I was at a softball game!! Went great! Now back to weather. You can see we do have a severe line of thunderstorms coming our way here in the WLFI viewing area. This line of storms has given way to some tornadoes in the past in areas of IL. This is something to take note of. As you can see we do still have the red boxes posted in this radar image above for areas of IL. This is where the tornado warnings are currently in place. We will continue to watch this line closely as it moves closer and closer to the WLFI viewing area. Right now we look for a 60 to 80% chance for thunderstorms tonight. We are looking for Scattered to moderate storms. Now the good thing is we are looking kinda okay stable - wise! Lifted index is around -0.7 which isn't to bad! I think we will start to see some of the storms let up just a bit as they move closer to the WLFI viewing area! Still we need to be alert and focused on the radars! So for now I will continue to watch this developing story and I will check back as needed.
Main threats right now would be frequent lightning, Pea sized hail is possible. Few gusty winds! Heavy rainfall, and at the moment an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out! (But I'm working on it) lol :)
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Have you all been enjoying this nice pool weather?? It has been wonderful that for sure!
Anyway stay cool my Indiana weather bloggers...