Thursday, December 17, 2009

A Few Alberta Clippers Move In... Also A Sneak Peak At The Current Situation For Our Christmas Outlook!!

Well, bloggers I know you all are going crazy for me to give you some info on our Christmas forecast right? Well, I have been holding off as long as possible so I can have the very best idea as to how things will play out. However because you bloggers are the best bloggers in the world I will go ahead and give you just a small sneak peak!

In just a few short minutes! :)

First I want to go ahead and talk a little about what we have in store for the next few days. Such as Temperatures and a few possible Alberta Clippers. Now yesterday's high hit 34.3 degrees which did still feel cool. Today on the other hand will feel a little warmer. We will see highs reach into the upper 30s around 37 - 38 degrees. Why is this? Well, lets take a closer look below.
Above is a map I put together to help show what will make our temperatures feel slightly warmer for the next two days. I know this map says Friday however this warm front you see above is already developing causing our temperatures to feel slightly warmer today. This will not be a real strong warm front however on Friday we will see highs around 40 degrees. This low pressure will give way to some precipitation. An Alberta clipper will move in from the north west come later Friday. Now because of the highs hitting around 40 degrees on Friday we may have to keep a possible mixture for the start of things. That is if the precipitation starts in the evening hours of Friday. Some models have it starting around 8:00pm EST Friday while other have it starting after Midnight that night. If it does hold off until after midnight then we will see it fall in the form of all snow. But how much snowfall could we see?

I don't think we would see over a half inch. More of a half inch or "Less". Alberta clippers don't usually give us much snowfall. When we see our big snows is when they come up from the south west and move into the Midwest area. We will look for another possible Alberta clipper come closer to Sunday and Monday. Again we will not see much for them ether.

Now here we go with the Christmas situation. Before I start I want to POINT OUT! that This is not the Forecast! All I want to do here is let you all know what the current situation is looking like. I will make a full detailed forecast when we get closer! I know it's only eight days away but that's still to far off to make a strong forecast.

Alright..... Shhhhhhhhhhh :) Right now I have many models showing a bigger system trying to develop around the 23rd and 24th. This system will develop from our south west. This strong low pressure will track through the Midwest area. The spot on track is not yet known for sure at this time. However we need to remember that this kind of system usually moves a good 100 to 200 miles north and west then what the models show!! Sometimes even 200 to 400 miles north and west then what the models show! So it will be watched closely.

Right now the models currently show this system starting out as a mixture on Christmas Eve. As seen in this model below.
The Precipitation is there but the temperatures are also a key part! However this also shows that from 8:00PM on, it would start changing over to all snow. As seen in this model below.
Now this is our ONLY chance at a white Christmas this year! If this system doesn't work out then we won't see a white Christmas.

But please remember that this is just the current situation!! The models have already changed many times. Pretty much they change every day I look at them. So will we see a white Christmas? Right now I would say we have a 50% - 50% chance. Nothing will be clear or set in stone to make any final call until we get closer.. And I promise you when things get closer and become more clear I will have all the details right here on JIWB.

Until then EVERYONE PRAY!! And God Bless..........

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh boy! I guess people need to be ready for a possible change in travel plans on Christmas Eve, if this system happens to dump on us:)

Thanks for the update Justin.

Teri

Anonymous said...

Your blog keeps getting better and better! Your older articles are not as good as newer ones you have a lot more creativity and originality now keep it up!