Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The latest.

Here is the latest.

...MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS... AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S F...MUCAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG BY 20Z DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FROM SWRN MO INTO WCENTRAL IL WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER SERN MO...CENTRAL/SRN IL. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE AREA /OWING TO AN INVERSION LAYER CENTERED NEAR 500 MB/. THIS WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH...DESPITE MODESTLY STRONG MID LVL SWLY FLOW AND CONSEQUENT MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KTS FROM 0-6 KM/. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION BECOMING ORGANIZED LINEARLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS /ESP INVOF OF ANY SMALLER-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS/. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND WILL DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL/SRN IN /SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT/ AND INTO FAR WRN OH/NWRN KY BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND 00Z. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED AND A SLIGHT RISK/15 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES/ WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

What this means is we could see wind gusts between 35 and 46 mph maybe a little higher in some area's. Also the NWS is not expecting to issiue a severe weather risk.
Here is how the chances look for Hail Tornados and Thunder.

Hail 5% Chance

Tornados 2% chance

Thunder 55% chance

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